Doubts build over claimed decline in household income

SCOTT WYLAND, THE OLYMPIAN

Originally published September 29

OLYMPIA -- Contrary to a recent Census report, evidence is mounting that Washington state's median household income didn't wane during the last two boom years of the 1990s.

In fact, contrasting numbers can be found within other Census studies, including figures that suggest the state's median household income surged from 1998 to 2000.

A bevy of state sources also point to median household income as rising during this period, with virtually nothing supporting the latest Census findings, a state analyst said.

"The fact we can back it up with other sources ... is the biggest thing," said Eric Swenson, an analyst at the state Office of the Forecast Council. At the worst, the state's household median has been flat, Swenson said.

Done as a supplement to Census 2000, the study's main purpose was to show trends in U.S. poverty.

It estimated that Washington's median household income fell by about 8.2 percent between 1998 and 2000, the steepest decline in the nation during that period.

Alabama and Louisiana were the two other states that showed a dip in median income.

Some experts attributed Washington's weak showing to Boeing layoffs and the high-tech bust.

But the Census Bureau surveyed 623 households in Washington, a sampling too small to be reliable, Swenson said.

The survey's basic margin of error was 5 percent, plus it had a 1 in 10 chance of being even further off, Swenson said. It's possible that income figures for 1998 were inflated and those in 2000 were gauged low, he said.

It could very well be a statistical anomaly, Swenson said.

Contradictions include:

- A Census pilot survey that uses short questionnaires pegged the state's median household income at $47,269 for 2000, compared to $42,024 in last week's report.

- The state Office of Financial Management's survey showed a 15 percent increase in median household income from 1997 to 1999. OFM uses a sampling of 7,000 households.

- State wage data shows median wages increased by 5 percent between 1998 and 1999. The average wage also rose by 10 percent when adjusted for inflation.

- The Internal Revenue Service "Statistics of Income" bulletin shows a 2 percent rise in gross median income for Washington workers in 1998 and '99.

It is virtually impossible for the household median to dip if per capita wages are rising, Swenson said.

The Olympian Copyright 2001

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