Democrats win statewide, but district lines limit local victories

Parties try to blame each other for split, but pollster says voters got what they voted for

PAUL QUEARY, THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Originally published October 15

OLYMPIA -- Al Gore carried Washington handily. Gary Locke twice won the governor's mansion easily. Democrats hold both of Washington's U.S. Senate seats and six of nine spots in the House. So why is the Legislature deadlocked, with Republicans holding only one seat fewer than Democrats?

The answer lies in the lines on the map that have defined lawmakers' districts since 1992. Democrats argue those lines pack their loyalists into too few districts. Republicans shrug and point out their foes naturally congregate in cities.

First, the numbers. In the 2000 election, Democrats in the Legislature had an average margin of victory over Republican opponents of more than 27 percent, compared to about 22 percent for Republicans.

Fifteen Democrats had such safe seats that no Republican bothered to challenge them, compared to only 11 such safe slots for GOP candidates. But when the dust settled, the GOP had picked up two seats in the Senate and maintained the tie in the House.

Berendt: Lines don't accurately reflect state

For Washington Democratic Party Chairman Paul Berendt, the contrast is an indictment of the way the state's legislative districts are redrawn after the census every 10 years.

"It's not a reflection of how Democratic or how Republican the state is," Berendt said. "There are more Democrats that are packed into the Democratic districts than there are Republicans packed into the Republican districts."

Unlike many states where redistricting is a bitterly partisan process controlled by the majority in the Legislature, Washington has a rigidly bipartisan redistricting commission made up of two Democrats and two Republicans. At least three members of the panel have to sign off on the final plan.

The system was approved by voters in 1983 after a particularly nasty redistricting fight. This year's round of redistricting marks the second time a commission has divvied up the state.

Because of its precise balance, the panel tends to protect incumbents, divide safe seats evenly between the parties, and leave the remaining seats competitive. That helped control of the Legislature shift wildly in the 1990s, from overwhelmingly Democratic after the 1992 election to an outright Republican majority after the 1996 vote to the current deadlock with a 49-49 tie in the house and 25-24 majority for the Democrats in the Senate.

Berendt blames the precarious balance on too many Democrats packed into too few districts.

"What the redistricting commission does is they basically cut the baby right up the middle," Berendt said.

Theoretically, the map could be redrawn so the Democratic votes are more widely dispersed, spreading the party's influence and giving it more chance to win an outright advantage.

For example, wealthy and mostly Republican Mercer Island has traditionally been lumped with Bellevue, a similar GOP enclave. Berendt argues that it should instead be grouped with Seattle, where Democrats dominate.

But from a Republican standpoint, what Berendt proposes is essentially illegal gerrymandering -- manipulating district lines for political advantage.

"What the Democrats would love to do if the process would allow it is to cheat," said Chris Vance, the chairman of the Washington Republican Party.

Vance: GOP needs to win back suburbs

Vance calls the Democratic density a function of American politics. "That's how American politics works. Democrats are clustered into cities," he said.

The constraints of the redistricting commission aside, the state Constitution calls for districts to be compact, convenient and separated by geographical barriers or political boundaries such as city limits.

But even with Democrats clustered in cities, Vance concedes his party is losing ground in its traditional stronghold -- the suburbs.

"The Democrats have been winning more and more races in the suburbs," Vance said. "We need to dominate the suburbs in order to be the majority party in this state."

Pollster: Where the parties live a mystery

Washington voters don't register by party, so there's no way to really know how many Republicans and how many Democrats live within its borders. But pollster Stuart Elway cautions against either party assuming it's the majority.

"The fact is the voters of the state of Washington got exactly the Legislature they voted for, which is tied," Elway said.

Elway's surveys consistently indicate that about 30 percent of Washingtonians consider themselves Democrats, another 30 percent think of themselves as Republicans, and 40 percent are independents.

Of 5.5 million votes cast for state Senate and state House candidates last year, Democrats had an advantage of just 132,729 votes, or about 2.4 percent, Elway said.

Democrats have won statewide races in recent years by running moderates like Locke and Cantwell, while Republicans have backed conservatives like talk-radio host John Carlson. Meanwhile, GOP moderates such as Secretary of State Sam Reed have done fine.

"If the Democrats think that if they got unstacked that they would have 60 seats in the house, I think that they're mistaken," Elway said.

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