Democrats point to history

Party in White House typically loses seats in mid-term voting

JOHN MACHACEK GANNETT NEWS SERVICE

Originally published March 24, 2002

WASHINGTON -- It would appear Democrats have momentum and history on their side going into this fall's battle for control of the House.

Thrown out of power in 1994 by a humiliating landslide loss to Newt Gingrich-led Republicans, Democrats -- the majority party for much of the previous century -- have gradually whittled down the huge GOP majority. They picked up nine seats in 1996, five in 1998, and one in 2000. They need a shift of just six seats to win the House back in 2002.

Moreover, the party that held the White House has lost seats in every mid-term election in the last 100 years except for 1934 in Franklin Delano Roosevelt's first term and 1998 in Bill Clinton's second.

GOP momentum

But the political landscape seven months out from George Bush' mid-term election is providing Republicans with momentum of their own.

President Bush's continuing sky-high popularity and a rebounding economy have improved the GOP's stock with voters and forced Democrats to look for other weaknesses or issues.

Generic polls -- those that ask voters whether they prefer a Democrat or a Republican candidate for a House seat -- showed Republicans with a slight edge earlier this month. More troublesome for Democrats was an IPSOS-Reid survey that shows Republicans picking up swing voters that went for Democrat Al Gore in the 2000 presidential race, according to a National Journal analysis.

"Whatever Democrats ultimately choose to do, what they have been trying to do thus far hasn't worked or doesn't appear likely to work," Charles Cook, a veteran congressional campaign analyst, says in his latest report. "There is scant evidence that Americans are inclined to blame this president for the recession."

Democrats "are behind in the polls and have not articulated a clear vision of where they want to take the country," said Jack Oliver, deputy chairman of the Republican National Committee.

Democrats see opportunity

But Democrats see plenty of opportunities on a battlefield that, pending completion of redistricting, includes 29 open seats where the incumbent -- 18 of them Republican -- is retiring or running for higher office. There also will be 10 newly created seats expected to have close races. In the last two congressional elections, Democrats have held their own in open seat contests, winning 11 of 21.

Republican votes for repealing the minimum tax corporations pay, proposing a weaker prescription drug benefit or cutting environmental cleanup programs are just a few of the issues Democrats think they can use.

"You have an out-of-step Republican leadership ... forcing vulnerable Republicans to take tough votes," says Rep. Nita Lowey, D-N.Y., the chairwoman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Potential issues

In the past few weeks, Democrats have revived Social Security as a potential issue after Republicans proposed digging deeper into the federal retirement program's reserves to help cover budget deficits. House Majority Leader Dick Army, R-Texas, gave Democrats a wider opening by calling again for a GOP push to partially privatize Social Security.

"Voters will remember who stands up for their retirement security," Lowey said at a rally with House Democratic Leader Dick Gephardt and Democratic candidates in four races where the Social Security issue could be potent.

One of the candidates was Carol Roberts, a Palm Beach, Fla., county commissioner who is running against Republican Rep. Clay Shaw, whose district has one of the highest percentages of people older than 65.

Shaw, chairman of the House Social Security subcommittee, barely survived a well-financed challenge two years ago in one of the closest (699 votes) and most expensive ($4.4 million) House races in the country. Worried Florida Republicans are now trying to make the district safer for Shaw by proposing to redraw his district in a way that would include more Republicans.

Redistricting

Shaw is just one example of how redistricting -- the once-a-decade exercise of redrawing congressional boundary lines following a new census and reapportionment -- has increasingly been turned into an incumbent-protection plan.

With redistricting complete in all but 11 states, analysts project that only about 50 of the 435 House seats will have competitive races this fall, compared with 80 competitive contests after the 1992 redistricting. Of the 50, only about two dozen races could be considered tossups by Election Day, according to strategists in both parties.

The smaller playing field is potentially bad news for Democrats. To score a net gain of six seats needed for control, they would have to win 18 of the 24 closest races, a daunting task, according to Cook.

"While six is a very small number out of a House of 435 seats, 75 percent (18 out of 24) is a very big percentage," Cook said in his report.

Sun Belt states

Republicans had predicted that population shifts to Sun Belt states, where they are strongest, would give them eight to 10 more seats through redistricting and reverse Democratic momentum. Instead, redistricting has turned out to be little more than a wash with the GOP expected to gain only two seats. Democrats say they have been further helped by new boundary lines that have given some GOP-controlled districts across the South an increased Democratic tilt.

"The Sun Belt gained seats because of increasing black and Hispanic population, and it is that population which has permitted us, along with fair redistricting in almost every one of those states, to be in a position where we can win some of those seats back this time," said Rep. Martin Frost, the Texas Democrat who led his party's aggressive redistricting program.

House: The Battle for Control

- Current party breakdown: Republicans, 222; Democrats, 211; independents, 2.

- Change of power: Democrats need a net gain of six seats in races for 435 seats to regain majority.

- Open seats (no incumbent running): 29; 18 currently held by Republicans, 11 by Democrats.

- Redistricting: Completed in 32 of 43 states having more than one congressional district.

On the Web:

- Washington State Redistricting Commission

- Washington State Legislature

- U.S. Congress

The Olympian Copyright 2002

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