With all of the human transgressions of the new millennium -- chiefly the continued fighting in Iraq -- nature's all-powerful hand often still dominates our lives.

Florida and neighboring states were wracked by one of the worst hurricane seasons on record.

Japan was shaken by a monster earthquake two months before another massive temblor off Malaysia unleashed a wave of death that claimed more than 140,000 lives and threatens at least as many with disease and starvation.

Are we in for more in 2005? It is one of the essential questions of the next 12 months.

As politics and science confront the massive earthquakes and hurricanes that have visited us, other, human-based threats confront us in 2005:

-Election Day, Jan. 30, could be as important as any election Americans have held in a generation. Except this one will be held in Iraq, where insurgents are doing everything possible to disrupt a planned vote for a new Iraqi government.

Will interim Iraqi leader Ayad Allawi gain grassroots legitimacy in the planned vote? Or will the voting be disrupted enough to cast doubt on any result? Iraq has deteriorated in the nearly 20 months since President Bush declared the end of major hostilities there. What will the country look like at the end of the next 12 months?

-For the fourth straight year, we pose the question: Will Osama bin Laden be captured or killed? He has become more political and more prolific in a series of video and audiotapes in late 2004.

Every time his voice is heard, it reminds us that the world governments that have vowed to get him have been unable to do so in the nearly 40 months since Sept. 11, 2001. After once asserting that bin Laden would be brought down "dead or alive," Bush has tried to downplay the fate of the world's most-wanted terrorist.

-Will Saddam Hussein be brought to Iraqi justice in 2005? If so, will exposure of the alleged atrocities under his dictatorship temper worldwide opposition to the U.S.-led invasion that led to his downfall?

-Will the death of Yasser Arafat truly open a gate for legitimate Palestinian elections and fresh peace discussions with Israel, or will 2005 prove that the past few months of relative peace have been a mere pause in an intractable conflict?

-Will the cost of oil, which has gyrated wildly in 2004, go up or down in '05? And what impact will it have on the U.S. economy and the economy of that emerging global economic power, China?

-Will the United States begin to harness the deficit and address the ticking time bombs of Social Security, Medicare and other entitlement programs that threaten the financial status of the world's remaining superpower?

-Finally, will the Ugly American stigma deepen or lessen in 2005? Thanks to the war in Iraq, the image of the United States might be at an all-time low in the eyes of foreigners from Europe to the Far East. Over the long haul, this question might be the most important of the coming year.

Chuck Raasch, political editor for Gannett News Service, can be reached at craasch@ gns.gannett.com.