Despite claims and rumors, quakes can't be predicted

JOHN DODGE, THE OLYMPIAN

OLYMPIA -- Predicting the time, location and strength of an earthquake is a popular pastime for psychics and pseudoscientists.

But don't believe it when you hear that the region will be struck by another damaging earthquake within the next week.

Earthquake predictions are rumbling across the Internet, capturing the attention of South Sound residents already edgy from the Feb. 28 earthquake.

But credible scientists who study earthquakes for a living put no stock in such claims.

"We live in a seismically active area -- we could have an earthquake tomorrow," noted Tim Walsh, a geologist with the state Department of Natural Resources.

But Walsh and others said it's not something anyone can predict.

"Predictions claimed as 'successes' may rely on a restatement of well-understood, long-term geologic earthquake hazards, or be so broad and vague that they are fulfilled by typical background seismic activity," University of Washington geophysics researcher Ruth Ludwin said in a paper she prepared on earthquake predictions.

Scientists have yet to find a useful method for predicting earthquakes, she said.

Linking earthquake predictions to tidal forces or unusual animal behavior does not stand up to scientific scrutiny, Walsh added.

Rest assured the Pacific Northwest will have another major earthquake. Historic data tells us so.

And it could occur on a fault line well documented by research.

But the precise timing of earthquakes is likely to continue to elude us, Ludwin said.

John Dodge covers the environment and energy for The Olympian. He can be reached at 754-5444.

On the web

Jim Berland's web site www.syzygyjob.org

The Olympian Copyright 2000

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