NEW YORK -- A good
deal of thought and a good deal of research has gone into
the final answer to the question: "Who will be the 2001 national
champion?"
It's the Oregon Ducks, of course.
As the season begins, Florida and Miami are the popular
No. 1 picks in most preseason forecasts, with the Gators
gaining the top spot in The Associated Press media poll
and the USA Today/ESPN coaches' poll.
The Hurricanes garnered significant support, with Oregon
State and Texas also getting some recognition, but there
is more method than madness in our Duck delirium.
It surfaced in the weeks after last season, when so many
schools were hiring new coaches, and when so many coaches
were trying to find quarterbacks to replace their graduated
stars.
Recent history says the odds are against teams with rookie
coaches winning it all -- only Michigan did it in 1948 under
Bennie Oosterbaan.
Teams with new starting quarterbacks rarely win it all
-- Tennessee, with Tee Martin in '98, is the only team to
do it since Miami, with Craig Erickson/Gino Torretta, accomplished
the feat in 1989.
That eliminates such powers as Miami, with new coach Larry
Coker, and Florida State, Oklahoma and Virginia Tech, all
with new quarterbacks -- Chris Rix for the Seminoles, Nate
Hybl for the Sooners and Grant Noel for the Hokies.
When the numbers are crunched, only a double handful of
teams in the AP's Top 25 possess the attributes necessary
to win a national title Jan. 3 in the Rose Bowl, the Bowl
Championship Series' designated title game this season.
Herewith, the top 10 teams capable of becoming champions:
1. Oregon.
2. Texas.
3. Florida.
4. Georgia Tech.
5. Oregon State.
6. Nebraska.
7. Tennessee.
8. Clemson.
9. Northwestern.
10. Notre Dame.
Asked to list three reasons why his team can and can't
win the title, coach Mike Bellotti came up with only two
for why his Ducks can't -- new kickers and inexperience
along the defensive line.
Three reasons Oregon can win? Quarterback Joey Harrington,
an explosive offense and home games at Autzen Stadium.
A closer look at the Ducks:
- The Quarterback: Eight starters return to an offense
featuring Harrington, whose likeness is plastered on a 10-story
high billboard in Manhattan thanks to generous boosters
promoting his Heisman campaign. He threw for 2,967 yards
and 22 TDs in '00 and is 14-2 as a starter.
"Joey's a winner," Bellotti says. "I think we have a very
potent offense. All the elements are there."
- The defense: Just four starters are back, only
one among the front seven, but cornerbacks Rashad Bauman
and Steve Smith helped the Ducks limit opponents to 42.7
percent passing in '00 -- the best mark in the nation.
Plus, last year's squad had only three returning starters
and they were second in the league in scoring defense (19.9
ppg).
"I'm anxious here," Bellotti says. "We lost eight starters
last year, but I had a better sense of confidence in who
was coming up. This year, we'll need some true freshmen
to step up along the line."
- Special teams: A new punter and a new kicker move
in. Bellotti feels stronger about the kickers, but still
hasn't settled on a punter. "We're looking for consistency,"
he said.
- The coaches: Bellotti, wooed by Ohio State and
USC in the offseason, loses three assistants but neither
coordinator. That's good.
His Ducks have 49 wins in six years, more than any other
Pac-10 team. Also, Oregon is coming off its first 10-win
season after beating Texas in the Holiday Bowl.
- The schedule: Oregon has a 20-game home winning
streak at Autzen Stadium -- the last loss there was in 1997.
The Ducks play four of their five toughies in front of
the Autzen crazies -- the opener against Wisconsin on Sept.
1, USC on Sept. 22, Arizona State on Nov. 3 and what could
be the greatest Civil War game ever against Oregon State
on Dec. 1. Three weeks earlier, on Nov. 10, Oregon is at
UCLA.
Plus, there's no Washington on the schedule for the first
time since 1944, and Oregon gets its chance to avenge last
year's losses -- against the Badgers and Beavers -- at home
in Eugene.
"We lost our two on the road, we get them back here and
that's better for us," Bellotti says. "But people say we
have a great schedule. You can't pick the tough games now.
After two or three weeks, then we'll get a better idea of
who's better."
Since the AP poll began in 1936, only one Pac-10 school
has finished No. 1 -- USC did it three times, in 1962, '67
and '72.
Get ready to add the Ducks to the list.
