Will Jeffords spur swing to center?

GOP moderates hope for lift from senator's shift

David Ammons

Originally published June 10

OLYMPIA -- Jim Jeffords' decision to bolt the Republican Party and turn the U.S. Senate over to the Democrats has the GOP on both coasts scrambling to make moderate voters and officeholders feel at home.

Washington state party leaders say they aren't about to abandon their conservative base, but say the Jeffords uproar gives them a prime opportunity to reframe their message and tone -- to "broaden the circle," as party elder Ralph Munro puts it.

"It's no longer 'How conservative can we possibly be?' " says state GOP Chairman Chris Vance. "We know we need to reach out to minorities, to women, to suburban voters. Our party knows we need to compete for the center."

In Washington, the party is at a low ebb after making a run at clear majority status in the 1994 and 1996 elections.

Both Senate seats are owned by the Democrats, only three of the House delegation are Republicans, and Democrats hold all but two statewide elected offices. Washington hasn't elected a GOP governor since 1980 and hasn't gone Republican for president since 1984.

Some observers say moving to the middle is the only way the party can have any hope of being a majority party. The Democrats, with their centrist "New Democrat" appeal, already have made the transition and are connecting with swing voters, they say.

"Republicans have got to move to the middle or they will lose," says James Thurber, an American University political science professor who has a summer home here and keeps tabs on Washington state trends.

"Most people in Washington state are pragmatic. They're middle of the road. They're fairly apolitical. Anytime you go too far to the right, you alienate your swing voters, including those in the suburbs."

Munro, who won statewide five times with strong crossover appeal and headed John McCain's presidential bid in the state, agrees.

"It's not rocket science. It's pretty simple," Munro says. "The big threat to Republicans is being labeled as the extremists, especially on issues like the environment and public education. If the Democrats can hang that label on us, then we're sunk."

Of Craswell and channeling

The so-called Evans wing of the GOP, headed by the three-term governor, Dan Evans, and other moderate-to-liberal Republicans, held sway in the 1960s and 1970s, but the party turned rightward when Ronald Reagan conservatives took over in 1976 and 1980. The party of Evans, Rockefeller and Ford was out of favor.

Religious conservatives nabbed control in 1988, sweeping the presidential caucuses for television evangelist Pat Robertson and taking the country's largest Robertson delegation to the national convention. Their state conventions took a hard-right turn, advocating an absolute ban on abortions and attacking homosexuality, witchcraft and channeling.

Although the tone has moderated considerably in recent years, many of the GOP's headliner candidates have been staunch conservatives, and have been drubbed -- Ellen Craswell and John Carlson for governor and Linda Smith for Senate, for instance. Even the more moderate Sen. Slade Gorton couldn't grab enough of the middle to fend off Maria Cantwell last fall.

Vance and other party leaders, though, see their current situation as the glass being half full. They note that the party has George W. Bush in the White House, control of the U.S. House, 49 U.S. senators, dual control of the state House and a near-tie in the state Senate.

Polls and election results show that the nation and state are fairly evenly split along partisan lines, with no clear evidence that voters think Republicans are terribly out of step with mainstream thought, says Republican consultant Brett Bader.

The fix

First of all, Vance wants to say, the state party already "gets it" and didn't need Jeffords to remind Republicans of the need for an inclusive party.

"We already got the message," Vance says with considerable vehemence. "We had a problem and we were already fixing it. ... There is virtually no one left in our party who thinks victory will come from nominating someone as conservative as Ellen Craswell again."

He says his own election as chairman is proof that the state party is serious about competing in the suburbs. He's the first since Bellevue's Jennifer Dunn to come from the vote-rich Puget Sound 'burbs where elections -- and control -- are won or lost.

Some ideas about broadening the party's appeal:

-Welcome mat: Secretary of State Sam Reed, a longtime leader of the moderate Mainstream Republicans of Washington, says the party needs to be serious about "care and feeding of the more moderate element of the party." Rather than tightlipped tolerance, the party should embrace candidates and officeholders from across the political spectrum, he says.

-Custom fit: Vance wants to find candidates who fit their districts to a T. Very conservative candidates might be perfect for some areas, but a more centrist appeal is essential in other areas, he says. Munro, noting that only moderates Reed and Land Commissioner Doug Sutherland won statewide last year, says Republicans need to use care to nominate people who can appeal to independents and moderates from both parties.

-The issues: Vance says the party needs to identify signature issues that resonate with the broad electorate, rather than more esoteric or divisive issues. Education is a good example -- not the old GOP emphasis on vouchers and eliminating the federal Department of Education, but new thoughts about getting more dollars into classrooms, improving student learning and accountability, he said.

-The tone: Dunn and Bader say the party needs to get smarter in how it presents its views. Republican thought doesn't have to sound scary or paternalistic, they say. "Our challenge is more one of tone and style than ideology," Bader says.

-The gap: Dunn and the party are working to narrow the gender gap with women.

-Unity: Reed says religious conservatives and moderates can coexist if they emphasize pragmatism over ideological purity.

Jury's out

Democrats believe they have the momentum right now, and say it's not clear just how competitive the Republicans will be -- post-Jeffords adjustments or not.

"I think the true believers in the Republican Party will remain true believers and the question is whether the party leadership recognizes the need to broaden the party base and bring back the moderates," says Sen. Dow Constantine, D-Seattle.

"I hope to God they let the hardcores stay in control."

David Ammons is the AP's state political writer. He can be reached at P.O. Box 607, Olympia, WA, 98507, or online at dammons@ap.org.

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