Who will win Oscar isn't always the same as who should win

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Originally published Sunday, March 17, 2002

AP Movie Writer David Germain and Entertainment Writer Christy Lemire predict who will win -- and suggest who should win -- in top Academy Awards categories on March 24:

Best Picture

- Nominees: "A Beautiful Mind," "Gosford Park," "In the Bedroom," "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring," "Moulin Rouge."

Germain

- Should win: "Moulin Rouge," a cinematic kaleidoscope that runs the dramatic spectrum from slapstick to romantic comedy to high tragedy.

- Will win: "A Beautiful Mind," a worthy film, and the safe and conventional bet in a field of more adventurous competitors.

Lemire

- Should win: "In the Bedroom," the best movie of 2001 because it had the biggest emotional impact. Stunning performances in a moving story, simply and powerfully told.

- Will win: "A Beautiful Mind." Everyone can agree on it: an inspiring film based on a true story with strong performances, and nothing too weird that would split Oscar voters.

Best Director

- Nominees: Ron Howard, "A Beautiful Mind"; Ridley Scott, "Black Hawk Down"; Robert Altman, "Gosford Park"; Peter Jackson, "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"; David Lynch, "Mulholland Drive."

Germain

- Should win: Altman, for roaring back from a fitful couple of decades with a deviously funny satire that has a dozen or so Oscar-worthy performances.

- Will win: Howard, who applied his mainstream touch to highbrow material and crafted a critical and commercial hit.

Lemire

- Should win: Howard. Because he's been around forever, he's never won an Oscar, and he's beloved in Hollywood. And this is the best movie he's ever made.

- Will win: Altman. Because he's been around even longer, he's never won an Oscar despite numerous nominations, and while he's not exactly beloved in Hollywood, the academy will honor him for a lifetime of work.

Best Actor

- Nominees: Russell Crowe, "A Beautiful Mind"; Sean Penn, "I Am Sam"; Will Smith, "Ali"; Denzel Washington, "Training Day"; Tom Wilkinson, "In the Bedroom."

Germain

- Should win: Washington, who delivers one of the most likable bad guys since James Cagney in his gangster-flick days.

- Will win: Washington. He's earned a best-actor Oscar to go with his supporting-role trophy.

Lemire

- Should win: Crowe. He deserves it more this year than he did last year, when he won for "Gladiator." And Tom Hanks has shown that back-to-back best-actor Oscars are possible.

- Will win: Washington. Because he doesn't have a best-actor Oscar, and while he doesn't necessarily deserve it for this role, the prevailing sentiment will be that he's due.

Best Actress

- Nominees: Halle Berry, "Monster's Ball"; Judi Dench, "Iris"; Nicole Kidman, "Moulin Rouge"; Sissy Spacek, "In the Bedroom"; Renee Zellweger, "Bridget Jones's Diary"

Germain

- Should win: Kidman, called upon to be a kook, a crooner, a can-can courtesan and a corpse. Performances don't get much more expansive.

- Will win: Spacek, weighing in as one of the best ice queens since Mary Tyler Moore in "Ordinary People" (whom Spacek beat for best actress with "Coal Miner's Daughter").

Lemire

- Should win: Spacek, for the most quietly powerful performance of the year.

- Will win: Spacek. I said it last year about Julia Roberts in "Erin Brockovich," and I'll say it again: Give in to the juggernaut.

Best Supporting Actor

- Nominees: Jim Broadbent, "Iris"; Ethan Hawke, "Training Day"; Ben Kingsley, "Sexy Beast"; Ian McKellen, "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"; Jon Voight, "Ali."

Germain

- Should win: Kingsley, who's as gut-punch scary playing mobster Don Logan as he was benign playing Gandhi.

- Will win: Kingsley. Vote for him, academy members, or Don Logan's paying you a visit.

Lemire

- Should win: Kingsley. "Sexy Beast" was one of the best movies of 2001, and Kingsley was impossible to stop watching -- in a movie no one saw.

- Will win: McKellen. "Lord of the Rings," with its 13 nominations, has to win something in a major category, and it won't get best picture or best director.

Best Supporting Actress

- Nominees: Jennifer Connelly, "A Beautiful Mind"; Helen Mirren, "Gosford Park"; Maggie Smith, "Gosford Park"; Marisa Tomei, "In the Bedroom"; Kate Winslet, "Iris."

Germain

- Should win: Mirren. She delights with prim-and-proper restraint before breaking hearts with an emotional meltdown at film's end.

- Will win: Connelly, whose powerful performance caps a string of bold roles informing Hollywood that she is far more than just a pretty face.

Lemire

- Should win: Connelly. And it's about time she receives the recognition she's deserved for years.

- Will win: Connelly. Granted, she has an unfair advantage because she's really in a leading role, but she shines.

On TV

The Oscars air at 5 p.m. March 24 on ABC.

Online

Who do you think will, or should, win an Oscar? Use the ballot below to mark your picks for Oscar night or vote online at www.theolympian.com.

The Olympian Copyright 2002

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